How does Lead and Opportunity Prioritisation Work?

How Lead and Opportunity Propensity Work

Understanding which leads and opportunities are likely to convert is at the heart of a high-performing revenue engine. RevSure’s Lead and Opportunity Propensity Models offer data-driven insights into funnel behaviour—empowering GTM teams to focus effort where it truly matters.

What Are Propensity Models?

Propensity models estimate the probability of future actions—in this case, whether a lead will progress through the funnel or an opportunity will close in a given quarter. These predictions help teams prioritize, forecast, and optimize their strategies with foresight instead of gut feeling.

RevSure’s models are built using both:

• Machine Learning (ML): Default method when 2–3 years of historical data is available

• Heuristic Logic: Used in low-data scenarios for reliable pattern-based predictions

Lead Propensity: Predicting Funnel Movement

The Lead Propensity Model estimates how likely a lead is to move to the next funnel stage (e.g., MQL → SQL). It supports sales and marketing teams in prioritizing leads with higher conversion potential.

How It Works

Heuristic Mode:

• Historical conversion rates + opportunity sizes grouped by segments (e.g., industry, persona, region)

• Projected lead value = # of leads × segment conversion rate × avg. opp size

ML Mode:

• A classification model is trained on enriched lead data and funnel history

• Learns patterns from past successful conversions, velocity, and engagement signals

• Generates quarter-specific conversion probabilities: CQ, NQ, NQ+1, NQ+2

Inputs:

• Lead source, region, company size, industry

• Funnel timestamps: Created Date, MQL, SQL

• Campaign & activity logs

• Derived metrics: stage velocity, time to quarter-end

Frequencies:

• Retraining: Quarterly (or earlier if configs change)

• Scoring: Daily

What to Do With the Score:

• High-score leads = prioritize for SDR outreach

• Low-score leads = consider for nurture tracks or further enrichment

Opportunity Propensity: Predicting Win Likelihood

The Opportunity Propensity Model forecasts the likelihood that an open opportunity will close, broken down by quarter. It’s built for sales leaders, forecasters, and pipeline owners.

How It Works

Just like lead scoring, this model comes in two flavours:

Heuristic Mode:

• Estimates conversion rates using historical deal data segmented by opportunity type, forecast category, and stage path

ML Mode:

• Uses deeper data such as forecast stage, CRM-provided probability, stage movement, and lifecycle history

• Outputs a score for each of the next four quarters: CQ, NQ, NQ+1, NQ+2

Inputs:

• Opportunity creation and expected close dates

• Forecast category, opportunity type, CRM probability

• Stage data: timestamps, time in stage, sequence

• Derived metrics: time to close, velocity, time to quarter-end

Frequencies:

• Retraining: Quarterly

• Scoring: Daily

What to Do With the Score:

• Focus effort on high-probability deals for the current quarter

• Re-evaluate stalled opps with low scores

• Use scores for roll-up forecasting and weekly pipeline health checks

Why This Matters

Both models are essential pillars of Deep Funnel Optimization, RevSure’s philosophy that growth happens below the surface—not just at the top of the funnel.

• Propensity scoring helps align sales and marketing

• Focus shifts from volume to conversion likelihood

• Enables smarter lead routing, forecasting, and ad budget allocation

• Powers downstream feedback loops like conversion value write-back to ad platforms

Summary

Both models are refreshed continuously and evolve with your funnel—ensuring the insights stay accurate, timely, and impactful.